The McKinsey report, 'The Hard Stuff: Navigating the Physical Realities of the Energy Transition', analyses seven domains (power, mobility, industry, buildings, raw materials, hydrogen and other energy carriers, carbon, and energy reduction), and highlights the shift from gas boilers to heat pumps as crucial for sustainable heating within the buildings domain.

The report details that heating, primarily from gas boilers, constitutes 75% of building emissions. McKinsey identifies heat pumps as central to decarbonisation, needing a nine-fold increase globally by 2050 to meet climate goals. While heat pumps work efficiently in milder climates, cold regions require specialised models due to reduced performance at low temperatures, which affects 15% of the global population.

Grid infrastructure will need expansion, especially in colder areas with surging winter demand.

McKinsey proposes a four-point strategy: advancing heat pump technology, improving demand management through efficiency and flexibility, integrating alternative heating (e.g., district heating), and implementing dual-fuel systems for extreme temperatures to mitigate fossil fuel reliance.